Let's Talk Baseball

By Matthew C.K. Bradwell
Creative Editor

When you're little, it's about the physics defying pornography of home runs. Home team down 6-0 in the eighth? Nothing like a solo shot to get every six year old on their feet for no discernable reason.

When you're a little older it's about being at the game, figuring out which beer guys don't card, spying cute girls and hassling David Bell (maybe the latter only applied to me).

Then, like all lasting relationships, it becomes routine.

Sure, you still get a little tingly when that guy who used to be Ken Griffey Jr. knocks one out of the park…and the girls are still cute, but good lord was that one wearing braces…and David Bell finally hung up the cleats…

But really, that's all silver lining in one big dark cloud of regret.

Why did he swing at that pitch?
Why didn't the manager pull him an inning earlier?
Why did we pay so much for a new center fielder?
Why did we pass on Brian McCann in the draft?
Joe Carter.

God I love baseball.

With that kind of optimism in mind here are the teams in each division that are in for the most regret in 2008. That's not suggest these teams will finish in last place (although some might), but more likely they'll come tantalizingly close to the playoffs, teasing themselves with glimpses of the light at the end of the tunnel, only to have it all joylessly ripped away in September. And since we live in the Wild Card era, I'll throw in an extra team per league.

AL East

Blue Jays

Whenever I think of the Jays, the first thing that comes to mind (besides that whole Joe Carter business) is that scene in the Matrix when Joe Pantoliano's character laments his decision to leave the pretend world of the matrix saying, "Why oh why didn't I take the blue pill?" It's kind of like that for Toronto. Playing in baseball's most consistently competitive division hasn't given the Blue Jays a chip on their shoulder or an extra drive to succeed, it's just kept them out of the playoffs every year since…you know. Expect more of the same this season, as Toronto struggles to get out of third place in the East despite improving their offense and bullpen.

AL Central

Twins

Remember 2006?

The Twins started the season terribly, then on the same night Roger Clemens returned for the Astros they got beat on national television by Minnesota rookie Francisco Liriano. Then the Twins stopped losing games, Nick Punto, Jason Tyner, Jason Bartlett and Luis Castillo were lovingly named "The Pirahanas" by White Sox Manager Ozzie Guillien (that may have been the only time Ozzie Guillien's name and the word "loving" ever appeared in the same sentence) and on the last day of the season they took the division from the (then surprising) Detroit Tigers.

That was awesome!

Remember last year?

The Twins flirted with .500 early then seemed to make some noise after the All Star break before steadily freefalling and finishing the season four games south of even and third in the Central. Then Torrii Hunter went for the big bucks and warm weather in Anaheim and Johan Santana got shipped to the Mets.

That sucked!

And it looks like this season is going to be worse. With the Indians pretty much fielding the same team as last season, the Tiger’s fielding the single scariest lineup since the Yankees of the mid 90s and the White Sox looking to bounce back from an uncharacteristic fourth place finish, the once mighty Minnesotans have the potential to overtake the Royals as worst team in baseball’s best division.

Strictly speaking that doesn’t make the Twins a disappointment, but the loss of two markee players on an already disappointing squad is going to make for a lot of unhappy Norweigans in 2008.

Thank god for Joe Mauer.

AL West

Angels

The wherever-the-hell they’re from Angels have won the West four of the last five years. In the Mike Scioscia era the only thing that keeps them from playing baseball in the cold (or as cold as it gets in Southern California) is a competitive division (with the noted exception of 2004 – if ever you needed proof of East Coast media bias, check out the 2004 AL West standings and then imagine if that had happened in the AL East).

This year the Mariners have the potential to improve on last season’s surprise (near) success. In fact, on paper Seattle looks like a significantly better team. The Angels have an alarmingly overlooked lack of power from players not named V. Guerrero (one more for that East Coast bias). It’s so bad that their projected starting infielders combined for 29 homeruns in 2007, less than half of the homerun production of the Mariners infield. And while sophomore Angels GM Tony Reagins’ fetish for overpaying aging centerfielders coming off contract seasons has created a convenient logjam to compliment Mr. Guerrero, Raul Ibanez and Brad Wilkerson are nothing to balk at either (and I hear that Ichiro guy is pretty good too).

Waive those rally monkeys all you want Angels fans, your team is going to win a lot of games in 2008 - but the Mariners are going to win more.

NL East

Phillies

For the second time on this blog, I am going to openly admit to shedding tears on the last day of the 2007 season when Jimmy Rollins hit his twentieth triple and the Phillies won the NL East. It was my single greatest moment as a sports fan, and I wake up every morning to this picture proudly hanging above my bed.

But as much as I hate to say it, I’m feeling nothing but dread heading into 2008. The Mets are more talented than their 2007 record and have only gotten better with the addition of Johan Santana.

(it’s certainly not helping matters that all the news coming out of Clearwater consists of the Phillies talking trash to the Mets and Brett Meyers playing jokes on people)

And the Braves, oh god the Braves.

All this Jayson Stark, Daily News and New York Post talk of a budding I-95 rivalry between the Phillies and the Mets silently leaves out Bobby Cox, Chipper Jones and the Atlanta Braves – you know, that team who mercilessly won the Division thirteen years in a row. They leave out that the Braves have only one hole in their lineup (Mark Kotsay) an even mix of proven veterans and promising youngsters, to say nothing of one of the few pitching staffs in baseball without any question marks (except maybe Tom Glavine, and that’s a question mark I would love to have).

NL Central

Cardinals

The Brewers will compete. The Cubs will compete (and probably win). The Astros might even compete. The Reds and the Pirates are in trouble, but the Reds are quietly building a talented young team and the Pirates aren’t expected be much more than the Pirates, so no disappointment there.

The Cardinals, once the class of the National League and two seasons removed from an improbable World Series win, are in for a lot of hurt.

I guess watching Rick Ankiel from April to September will be pretty cool and you can never really count out Pujols, but when Kyle Loshe is your big off-season acquisition, hopes aren’t exactly high.

If Cardinals fans thought 2007 was a harsh shot in the gut, 2008 is looking like swift knee to the face.

NL West

Rockies

With less power hitters than any other division in baseball (Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young and Matt Holliday are the only players in the West who hit more than 30 homeruns last season), the NL West will likely be won on pitching. That thrusts the Padres and Diamondbacks to the front of the pack with each team having the luxury of two Cy Young winners (Jake Peavy and Greg Maddox on the Padres and Bandon Webb and Randy Johnson on the Diamondbacks) and at a bevy of Cy Young candidates pitching behind them.

The defending pennant winners just don’t have the arms to compete. Ubaldo Jimenez is young enough and has the velocity to develop into a legitimate ace, but really do you want to rest your hopes on the shoulders of a guy named Ubaldo?

The Rockies were able to squeak out at the end of last year by relying on a group of streaky hitters (Holliday, Tulowitzki and Helton aside) who all got hot at the exact same time. That’s not suggest that it wasn’t impressive, but it’s not going to happen again.

Wild Cards

Mets, Yankees

The current reigning champions of regret, the New York Mets, have certainly improved with the addition of Santana, but he still only gets to pitch once every five days. If the Braves turn out as good as I’m afraid they are, that poor little tyke could find himself on the cover of the New York Post twice – an impressive feat for someone not old enough to commit adultery.

The Yankees could get done in by the stacked talent in their own division and the AL Central. If the Yankees and Red Sox beat each other up whenever they play and the Blue Jays are a consistent spoiler, the Yankees are going to have a difficult time amassing more wins than whoever is second in the Central (and Hank Steinbrenner seems pissy enough as it is).

Good luck Joe!